Re-Visiting My MLB Season Preview (60-Game Edition)

Before the season was supposed to begin in March, I made a bunch of predictions and one of those was that the season was going to start in June and they would play a 162-game season. That prediction hasn't aged well and the season is set to begin in late-July and be 60 games instead. This has allowed me to re-evaluate and change my predictions to tailor to the new situation. What follows is my new set of predictions. 

Predictions
First, there are a set of predictions that I am going to hold steady on and you can read the explanations for these from the last post so I won't spend much time on them.

1. There will be 3 no-hitters in the shortened season.
2. The New York Yankees will lead the league in home runs.
3. Gerrit Cole won't be the best free agent signing of the season.
4. The AL West will be the most tightly contested division in baseball.
5. Francisco Lindor will be traded by the trade deadline.
6. One division will send four teams to the postseason.
7. At least two of last year's playoff team won't make the postseason this year. 
8. The New York Yankees will have the best record in the MLB.
9. The 1st pick in the 2021 MLB Draft goes to the Baltimore Orioles.
10. The Astros scandal will unite the entire league at Houston's expense.

Now for the new predictions to cater to a shortened season.
11. 20 Home Runs will be the mark to beat for the home run leader.
In my last set of predictions, I named Stanton and Bellinger as my leaders but I'm going to amend that. I still think Bellinger will lead the NL, but I'm switching my prediction in the AL to J.D. Martinez from the Red Sox. He's hit 43 and 36 in the last two seasons. Granted that is over a 162 game season, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility he gets hot and hits at least 20 in the 60 games. I think Bellinger will hit the most of the two names here but we won't see too many balls leaving the yard. For this to be possible, a fully healthy player will need to hit a home run every three games. 

12. No starting pitcher will win more than 7 games this season.
Ideally, for a 60 game season and a team with a rotation of five pitchers, assuming everyone remains healthy and the starters are used every five games, each starter should get not more than 12 starts. Things won't be as perfect as this but even if they did, I'm sticking to it. For example, Justin Verlander went 21-7 last season in 34 starts, which means that if he were to start 12 games this season, he would only have nine decisions. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that a pitcher goes undefeated but when you add in no-decisions and all those things, it'll be hard to imagine someone winning so many games.

13. No team will win more than 40 games. 
Last season, no team won 2/3 of their games. In order to do so, you have to win 108 games during a normal season. Houston came close with 107 wins, but only one team has accomplished this since 2015 (the 2018 Boston Red Sox won 108 and the World Series). This year the 2/3 threshold is 40 wins. It is possible for someone to win 40 but I don't think anyone will have more than that. My money is on the New York Yankees, obviously, since I think they'll have the best record in baseball. The Dodgers and Astros will likely come close, but 40 wins will likely guarantee you the home-field advantage in the postseason.

14. The Rays will have the best team ERA in the league.
Call it my bias since I'm a Rays fan, but this team is built for a short-season environment, especially their pitching staff. The staff finished 2nd in team ERA last season behind the Dodgers and the staff hasn't changed too much, in fact it might have gotten healthier. The three-headed monster at the top of the rotation of Morton-Snell-Glasnow is going to be a tough hill to climb for many teams. I think they'll likely still be a Wild Card team but if the offense can step it up this season, things will be looking up yet again.

15. The league will complete a full 60-game schedule with only minor hiccups.
This is a bit of a cop-out prediction but with all the uncertainty surrounding the state of the pandemic and just how possible it is for sports, this doesn't feel like a foregone conclusion. Until the league begins play on July 23, I won't believe the league will be coming back at all. I do think players are going to test positive and it'll likely be some big-name players too, but it is possible to see a full season being played and the World Series be awarded. I am looking forward to the game coming back, hopefully for good.

Re-Adjusted Playoff Predictions
AL East Top 2: New York Yankees (40-20), Tampa Bay Rays (34-26)
AL Central Top 2: Minnesota Twins (36-24), Cleveland Indians (32-28)
AL West Top 2: Houston Astros (37-23), Los Angeles Angels (32-28)
Wild Card Teams: Oakland Athletics (31-29), Boston Red Sox (30-30)

NL East Top 2: Atlanta Braves (36-24), Washington Nationals (32-28)
NL Central Top 2: Cincinnati Reds (32-28), St. Louis Cardinals (30-30)
NL West Top 2: Los Angeles Dodgers (39-21), San Diego Padres (32-28)
Wild Card Teams: Philadelphia Phillies (31-29), Colorado Rockies (29-31)

1st Round (Best of 3)
New York def. Boston 2-0
Houston def. Oakland 2-1
Minnesota def. Los Angeles 2-1
Tampa Bay def. Cleveland 2-0

Los Angeles def. Colorado 2-0
Atlanta def. St. Louis 2-0
Philadelphia def. Cincinnati 2-1
Washington def. San Diego 2-1

Divisional Series (Best of 5)
New York def. Tampa Bay 3-2
Houston def. Minnesota 3-1

Los Angeles def. Philadelphia 3-0
Atlanta def. Washington 3-2

Championship Series (Best of 7)
New York def. Houston 4-2 (MVP: Gerrit Cole)

Atlanta def. Los Angeles 4-2 (MVP: Ozzie Albies)

World Series
New York def. Atlanta 4-3 (MVP: Gleyber Torres)

Re-Adjusted Awards
Not much is going to change in this regard and I'm not going to re-explain my picks unless it is different.

AL MVP: LAA OF Mike Trout def. OAK 3B Matt Chapman, HOU 1B Yuli Gurriel
NL MVP: LAD OF Cody Bellinger def. ATL OF Ronald Acuna Jr, MIL OF Christian Yelich
I originally picked Acuna Jr for my MVP during my early predictions, but that was under the idea he was going to be a 40/40 player in a full 162-game season. Now that I think Bellinger is going to be a 20-home run hitter this season in 60 games, it seems to be his to lose. It is tough to go back-to-back with MVPs, but he is the cream of the crop in the NL.
AL Cy Young: NYY SP Gerrit Cole def. CLE Mike Clevinger, MIN SP Jose Berrios
NL Cy Young: LAD SP Walker Buehler def. WAS SP Stephen Strasburg, NYM SP Jacob DeGrom
AL ROY: CWS OF Luis Robert def. TB SP Brendan McKay, OAK SP Jesus Lazardo
NL ROY: LAD 2B Gavin Lux def. COL 2B Brendan Rodgers, MIA SP Sixto Sanchez
AL MOY: LAA Joe Madden def. TB Kevin Cash, NYY Aaron Boone
NL MOY: PHI Joe Girardi def. NYM Luis Rojas, CIN David Bell

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Thoughts From My Couch: Carolina Hurricanes v. Nashville Predators, Round 1, Game 6

We officially have our first elimination game of the series and the Canes are on the right side of things. After a great come-from-behind win in Game 5 capped off by a Jordan Staal winner in overtime, the Canes are the proud owners of a 3-2 series lead with Game 6 moving to Nashville. The home team has won every game in this series to date, which would seem to play in the Preds' favor for tonight's game. Because I'm a bit of a history nerd, I did some research on the team in Game 6's. The Canes, since relocation, have played in 11 Game 6's, going 6-5 in those games. The Canes held a 3-2 advantage in seven of those games and have gone 4-3, meaning they've finished the series in six games four times. In the three prior instances where they lost Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead, they won Game 7 each time, in fact, the Canes have won all five Game 7's since moving to Raleigh. 4-3 is also their record on the road in Game 6. If you believe in jinxes or worry a lot, s...
Read more

Thoughts From My Couch: Carolina Hurricanes v. Nashville Predators, Round 1, Game 1

For the first time since the Stanley Cup Final in 2006, the Carolina Hurricanes are opening up a series at home. To add to the excitement, PNC Arena welcomed 12,000 fans after capacity was increased. Having not played a true playoff home game since losing to the Boston Bruins two seasons ago, this isn't something the team has been used to. There were a lot of question heading into the game on the injury front, but the team had nearly a full compliment of players. What follows is my view of the game from my couch. While I might not have been there in person, the view couldn't have been any better. 1st Period: Predators 1, Hurricanes 1 The atmosphere coming through the television from the 12,000 fans in PNC Arena could certainly be felt throughout the entire period. The period as a whole had every major staple of playoff hockey. The action was fast, the hits were hard, and the players were not messing around. It didn't take long for the boys in stripes to get involved in the ...
Read more

My Not So Definitive Ranking of Disney's Animated Movies

Like most kids, Disney was a huge part of growing up, and still very much is to this day. DisneyWorld is still this magical place that I want to go to. Disney also owns everything so channels like ESPN and ABC have also forever been essential to my family. But one of the best parts of everything Disney is their movies, specifically their animated films. With this ranking, I want to take a look at every theatrical release from Walt Disney Animated Studios and Disneytoon Studios. These two studios account for an impressive collection of films that date back forever. By my count, there are 67 films between the two studios that have been released. These are the only 67 that I will be focusing on, so no direct-to-video movies or sequels on the list. For context, there are 58 total films from WDAS and 9 theatrical releases from Disneytoon Studios.  For starters, this is really going to be a Top 45 since I can honestly say I haven't seen every single one of the 67 films. There are 18 film...
Read more