2020 MLB Season Review

2020 has been easily the weirdest year in recent history. A sport that typically plays 162 games in a season was reduced to 60 games in two months. It helped to introduce more teams to the playoffs, saw extra-inning changes, seven-inning doubleheaders, three batter minimums for relief pitchers, and many more. What we got was an exciting, action-packed two months of baseball with small COVID problems here and there. I made predictions before the season in March and when the season was reduced to 60 games, I amended my predictions and altered them to fit the reduced schedule. As I do every year, I want to go back over my predictions for the season and show just how bad I am at predicting what to expect. I'll start with my predictions for the season then talk about my standings predictions as well, ending with my awards predictions.

My Predictions for the Season Revisited

Prediction 1: There Will Be 3 No-Hitters

So close, yet still so far away. There were only 2 this season in the 60 game schedule. Both were thrown by pitchers from different sides of Chicago, the White Sox Lucas Giolito and the Cub Alec Mills. I also made some side predictions that were all wrong as well. I said one would be thrown by a pitcher who already has thrown one, which neither had before. I said one would be a combined no-hitter, and neither of them was. Lastly, I said the Rays would be involved in one and neither was thrown by or against the Rays. Much like last season, I was off by one and it stings just as much.

Prediction 2: The New York Yankees Will Lead the League in Home Runs

Maybe it was the number of injuries they faced, but the Yankees finished 5th in the league in home runs with 94. This placed them behind the Dodgers (118), Braves (103), White Sox (96), and Padres (95). Only three players on the Yankees hit double-digit home runs, Voit (22), LeMahieu (10), and Sanchez (10), while guys like Stanton and Judge, known for their power, were hurt so much they didn't play in half the games and only hit 4 and 9 home runs respectively. I'd be interested to see if this would've changed with a full season, but we can only imagine at this point.

Prediction 3: Gerrit Cole Won't Be the Best Free Agent Signing of the Season

This is an extremely broad statement. To clarify, of the top free agent signing (i.e. Rendon to the Angels, Wheeler, and Gregorious to the Phillies, Ryu to the Blue Jays, Donaldson to the Twins, or Ozuna to the Braves), Cole would not be the top performer of this group. Honestly, I think I'm right about this. Both Ryu and Wheeler had better WAR's as pitchers, but I think the best signing was Marcel Ozuna by the Atlanta Braves. He led the NL in Home Runs and RBIs and was 3rd in Batting Average for a stacked Braves offense. Cole was by no means bad, going 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA and put together two good starts in the ALDS, but based on numbers alone, Ozuna was better.

Prediction 4: The AL West will be the Most Tightly Contested Division

Another year of expecting the AL West to be good, another year I'm bitterly disappointed, but more on that later. Based on how tight the top of the AL Central was, I'd have guessed that would've been the closest division, but it wasn't. That honor belongs to the NL West where the Braves, the division champions, and the Nationals, the defending champs-turned-bottom feeders, were separated by nine games by the end of the season. The AL Central was second, with Minnesota and Detroit separated by 12 games and AL West separated by 14 games between Oakland and Texas. 

Prediction 5: Francisco Lindor will be Traded at the Deadline

It didn't feel like there was a lot of movement at the Trade Deadline this year, at least not among the bigger stars in the league. Lindor began and ended his season with the Cleveland Indians this year, not being moved as I had thought. He still has one year left before he can hit the market and is slated to make $19.5 million in 2021. It wouldn't be too crazy to think he might be on the move this offseason but nothing is guaranteed. 

Prediction 6: One Division Will Send Four Teams to the Postseason

I initially thought a division would send three teams to the playoffs before the season was shortened and the playoffs were expanded, so with the larger field, suggesting four teams from one division would make the playoffs still sounded crazy. But it did in fact happen. The NL Central sent four of its five teams to the postseason but that's about as exciting as it gets. All four played opponents from the NL East and West and all four of the teams lost in the Wild Card round. Worst yet, three of the four teams were swept (Chicago by Miami, Cincinnati by Atlanta, and Milwaukee by Los Angeles) with only St. Louis winning a game, losing in three games to the San Diego Padres. Not quite how I envisioned a division with four playoff teams to go down.

Prediction 7: At Least Two of Last Year's Playoff Teams Won't Make the Playoffs

This was going to be tough with 16 of the leagues 30 teams making the playoffs. Still, one team that made the playoffs in 2019 didn't make it in 2020. Oddly enough, it was the defending champions, the Washington Nationals, that failed to qualify for the postseason. Washington missed out on the postseason by three games in the Wild Card race and five games behind the Marlins for second in the division. The other nine teams from the 2019 postseason all managed to qualify again.

Prediction 8: The New York Yankees will have the best record in the MLB

To have a chance at the best record in baseball, you have to win your division. The Yankees failed to do so, finishing seven games behind the Rays for the AL East crown. The Yankees finished 6th in the American League and 10th in the MLB. The Dodgers ended up with the best record at 43-17, three games better than the Rays. I had the Yankees winning 104 games in a 162-game season, which would have been roughly 38 or 39 wins in 60 games. Based on their .550 Winning Percentage, they would've only won 89 games in a full season.

Prediction 9: The 1st pick in the 2021 MLB Draft goes to the Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore was really bad in 2019. Not as bad as Detroit was, but bad enough to pick 2nd in the 2020 MLB Draft. I thought for sure they'd be just as bad this season and while they weren't good, they certainly weren't as bad as I thought they'd be. They didn't finish last in their division, finishing one game better than Boston. They still hold the 5th pick in the 2021 Draft, but the top pick was won by the Pittsburgh Pirates. To add to how wrong I was, I thought this would be a three-team race between Baltimore, Detroit, and Miami. Detroit and Baltimore hold the 3rd and 5th pick respectively, but the Miami Marlins made the playoffs and actually won a series. Pittsburgh won the pick by three games over the Texas Rangers to top the upcoming draft.

Prediction 10: The Astros scandal will unite the entire league at Houston's expense

There is no way to calculate just how much the league hated the Astros, but there was one incident in particular that did it more than most. When the Dodgers Joe Kelly threw high on the Astros and became a meme, there was little outrage around the league outside of Houston. The Astros managed to make it to the ALCS against Tampa Bay but fell in seven games, which certainly made things a little better. I'd be willing to say this prediction was right only because it's hard to know how united we became.

Prediction 11: 20 Home Runs will be the mark to beat for the home run leader

On top of the bigger prediction, I thought Cody Bellinger would lead the NL and J.D. Martinez would lead the AL. Only one player managed to hit 20 Home Runs this season, but it was neither of the names I guessed. The MLB Home Run Leader this season was Luke Voit of the Yankees with 22 and Marcell Ozuna hit 18 to lead the National League. To show just how off I really was, Bellinger hit 12 and Martinez only hit 7. Jose Abreu finished just shy of 20, hitting 19 and finishing 2nd in MLB.

Prediction 12: No starting pitcher will win more than 7 games this season

This is another "close, but no cigar" prediction but the fact is that there were two pitchers who finished with 8 wins this season. I hadn't taken into account just how good Cleveland's Shane Bieber and the Cubs' Yu Darvish were going to be this season. The two likely Cy Young winners were the only two to get to 8 wins, with four others winning 7 of their starts (Marco Gonzales, Zach Davies, Gerrit Cole, and Max Fried).

Prediction 13: No team will win more than 40 games

I've already touched on this point a little, but this was proven wrong when the Dodgers demolished their way through the AL and NL West en route to a 43-17 record. They were the only team to surpass 40 wins with the Rays finishing right at 40 wins, going 40-20. My bet was the Yankees would be the 40-game winners, but injuries will do that to you. 

Prediction 14: The Rays will have the best team ERA in the league

While not the best in the MLB, or even the best in the AL, the Rays finished 3rd in the league with a 3.58 team ERA. This trailed only the Dodgers (3.02) and the Indians (3.29). The Rays' strength is their pitching staff, particularly their bullpen, which was evident all season and has been seen in the postseason as well. For my money, despite the Dodgers' ERA, the Cleveland staff was probably the best in the MLB, finishing Top 5 in almost every major pitching category.

Prediction 15: The league will complete a full 60-game schedule with only minor hiccups

I called this a cop-out prediction when I first made it, but it feels like a little less of a cop-out now that it has happened. There were quite a few COVID cases that popped up, causing the league to reevaluate and schedule a bunch of double-headers. But they made it all the way through a 60-game schedule and put together a good plan for the postseason which will allow the season to end exactly when they had expected it to and is on track to start on time in 2021.

My Standings Predictions Revisited

I can admit that I was nowhere close when predicting how everyone would finish. I'm not an expert, so it is more of an educated (or uneducated as it turns out) guess on my part. I'll show you a side by side of what I thought would happen and what actually happened for each division with some insight into why I made my decisions and my observations of each division since they all played each other.

AL & NL East

My Predictions

Division Winners: Yankees (40-20) and Braves (36-24) 

Other Playoff Teams: AL- Rays (34-26), Red Sox (30-30) NL- Nationals (32-28), Phillies (31-29)

Other Notes: Baltimore and Miami would both finish last in their divisions.

What Happened

I was spot on with the Braves winning the NL East and was only off by one game in my projected record. I had the Rays and Yankees flipped, but was right about the AL East winner going 40-20. Outside of that, I was wrong about quite a lot. Miami was a playoff team and finished second in the NL East. I picked Boston to make the playoffs before Chris Sale missed the season. The Nationals and Phillies underperformed significantly. The youth of the Blue Jays propelled them into a playoff spot. 

AL & NL Central

My Predictions: 

Division Winners: Twins (36-24) and Reds (32-28)

Other Playoff Teams: AL- Indians (32-28) NL- Cardinals (30-30)

What Happened

Hit Minnesota right on the head as the division winner and finished 36-24. Cleveland also made the playoffs and finished three games better than I predicted. Cincinnati and St. Louis both made the playoffs as I projected, and the Cardinals did win 30 games, but the Cubs won the division. I picked both Detroit and Pittsburgh to finish last in their divisions, which was correct. The NL Central sent four teams to the postseason and the White Sox finished tied with Cleveland for second in the division. 

AL & NL West

My Predictions

Division Winners: Astros (37-23) and Dodgers (39-21)

Other Playoff Teams: AL- Angels (32-28), Athletics (31-29) NL- Padres (32-28), Rockies (29-31)

What Happened

The Dodgers were an easy pick for first and outperformed my projected record by four games. The Padres did better than that though, finishing second as I predicted and five games better than I thought. Third in the NL West did go 29-31, but it was San Francisco, not Colorado. I was not wrong about a division worse than I was about the AL West. Oakland won the division with 36 wins, while Houston finished second at 29-31. The rest of the division was pretty bad, but I again put way too much faith in the Los Angeles Angels. I picked them to finish second and win 32 games and they thanked me by finishing 26-34, good enough for 4th in the division.

My Awards Predictions Revisited and New Predictions

AL MVP

Preseason Pick- LAA OF Mike Trout

My New Winner- CWS 1B Jose Abreu

There are going to be people who feel Shane Bieber should win MVP and Cy Young and I think there is some validity to that argument. I've always understood the general feeling is a pitcher will win MVP if there isn't a batter that really stands out above the rest of the league and the pitcher is just that good compared to everyone else. Bieber really was lights out this season, going 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 122 K in 77 1/3 Innings. But Jose Abreu is the most deserving of being MVP. Abreu hit .317 and mashed 19 Home Runs, second in the league, and drove in 60 runs, the most in baseball. They are the two best options to win the award but Abreu should win.

AL Cy Young

Preseason Pick- NYY SP Gerrit Cole

My New Winner- CLE SP Shane Bieber

This is a lay-up for the voters. There is no other pitcher that should win this award after the season Bieber had. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Gerrit Cole could be the other finalists but Bieber is the Cy Young Winner for this season. I put his numbers in the MVP discussion and they are just phenomenal. If he isn't the unanimous winner of the award, someone is flat-out wrong.

AL ROY

Preseason Pick- CWS OF Luis Robert

My New Winner- SEA OF Kyle Lewis

I don't think this season's crop of rookies is anything too spectacular, so this is a bit of a toss-up. Luis Robert would win if his batting average were higher than .232. But since it isn't Kyle Lewis is going to be the front-runner for the award. There are two Rays pitchers, Pete Fairbanks and Josh Fleming, who I think should be in the conversation but likely won't. Lewis matched Robert with 11 Home Runs and though he had three fewer RBIs, Lewis hit nearly 30 points better than Robert, which should be more than enough to give him the award.

AL MOY

Preseason Pick- LAA Joe Madden

My New Winner- TB Kevin Cash

This is another award that was fairly easy to pick. Kevin Cash led the Rays to a 40-20 record with the 3rd lowest payroll in the league and a World Series appearance. That alone should be enough justification, but he also did this by using a different lineup for almost every game. It felt like almost every decision he made was the right one and it helped the Rays win the division and beat the Yankees and Astros in the playoffs. 

NL MVP

Preseason Pick- LAD OF Cody Bellinger

My New Winner- ATL 1B Freddie Freeman

There are a lot of names that could be brought up in this debate, but my two front-runners both play in Atlanta. Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna two of the biggest pillars in an incredibly deep Braves offense. My reason for picking Freeman boils down to Ozuna not being named a finalist for the award. I think Ozuna probably deserves it more than Freeman. Freeman is the leader of that team and has developed into the face of the franchise. 

NL Cy Young

Preseason Pick- LAD SP Walker Buehler

My New Winner- CHC SP Yu Darvish

There are a couple of pitchers I think could be in the running. Max Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. 2-time Reigning Winner Jacob DeGrom went 4-2 with a 2.38 and 104 K in 12 starts. Trevor Bauer went 5-4 with a 1.73 and 100 K in 11 starts. Yu Darvish is likely to win because of his 8-1 record and 2.01 ERA and 93 K in 12 starts. I can make an argument for any of these guys, but Darvish's record and ERA combination is likely to beat out the challengers to win the award.

NL ROY

Preseason Pick- LAD 2B Gavin Lux

My New Winner- LAD P Dustin May

There isn't a clear choice to win the ROY in the NL. Padres Duel Threat Jake Cronenworth is going to get a lot of hype, but his numbers don't jump out to me. Braves SP Ian Anderson pitched well, albeit in just 6 starts, going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 41 K. My reason for picking Dustin May might be that he's playing on a World Series team, but he started 10 games and appeared in 2 more on a good team, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA. He ate a lot of inning for the team, pitching 56, second on the team to Clayton Kershaw. There is no guaranteed option to win it but this is my pick.

NL MOY

Preseason Pick- PHI Joe Girardi

My New Winner- SD Jayce Tingler

This is a slam dunk pick again, though Don Mattingly in Miami might disagree. San Diego hadn't made the playoffs since 2006 or had a winning record since 2010 and they accomplished both feats this season in Tingler's first season. He's got a strong offense going forward and good arms on the staff currently and in the pipeline that San Diego is going to be a serious force. Tingler did a great job with them this season and the sky is the limit for this team's potential.