2021 MLB Preview

With teams reporting to Spring Training, the 2021 MLB season is quickly approaching. As strange as the 2020 season was with the ongoing pandemic, the hope is that the season can start on time without any problems and a full 162 game season can take place. I share this hope because I'm ready to return to some semblance of normalcy after the condensed season that took place in 2020. Despite the reduced schedule, there was plenty of fun that occurred. The season culminated in the Los Angeles Dodgers exercising their demons from previous years and finally capturing the World Series that alluded them, winning in six games over the Tampa Bay Rays. As a Rays fan, it was sad to see them lose, but I'll always have the memory of Game 4 and the absolute roller coaster that game took us all on. But with a new season comes a new set of storylines. I'll talk briefly about the biggest storyline for each team before going into my season predictions, which will cover overall league predictions, division predictions, postseason predictions, and award predictions. 

Storylines

Baltimore- Time to Let the Young Guns Take Over

It has been a rough couple of years for the Orioles. They picked 1st in 2019, 2nd in 2020, and will be picking 5th in the upcoming draft in June. This team doesn't possess much star power in the lineup or on the bump, so this is looking to be another down year for an organization looking towards the future. The cream of the future crop is easily C Adley Rutschman, the first overall pick in 2019 who has reported to Spring Training. I doubt he'll crack the roster from camp, but I wouldn't completely eliminate him being in the bigs at some point this season. The offense will rely on Anthony Santander and Trey Mancini, while John Means will be the ace on the hill. I don't expect Baltimore to keep pace with the rest of the division but much like we've seen in Toronto and other places, the young guns are going to get a chance this season to prove Baltimore's future plan is beginning to take shape.

Boston- How Can They Keep Pace with the Top of the AL East?

The shortened campaign the Red Sox had last season proved just how much they miss Chris Sale. Boston finished in the cellar of AL East and had the fourth-worst record in the league. A big reason for this was the 5.58 team ERA, though Nathan Eovaldi was one of the lone bright spots at the front of the rotation. Despite the struggles on the mound, they have a strong offense, even after trading Mookie Betts last season, and it only looks to be better with the additions of Hunter Renfroe and Kike Hernandez. Though they won't get Chris Sale back in all likelihood, they will get Eduardo Rodriguez back into the rotation to try and strengthen the rotation. Even with these additions, it is hard to see them keeping up with New York and Tampa Bay at the top of the standings and even Toronto after the season they had last year. 

New York (AL)- Are the Yankees the Best Team in the AL?

On paper, this might be the best team in the American League. The lineup is lethal and can hit a home run seemingly on command. The rotation is led by one of the best arms in the game in Gerrit Cole. Their biggest problem has always been whether they can stay healthy, which was a big reason why they fell behind last season and couldn't catch the Rays in the AL East. While they lost Tanaka and Paxton in free agency, they did manage to bring in Corey Kluber and re-sign DJ LeMahieu. While they'll likely be without Luis Severino again this season, this team is built on its offense it is going to put up massive numbers and will likely position itself as the team to beat in the AL. 

Tampa Bay- The State of the Starting Rotation

I may not be in the know for all other franchises but since the Rays are my team, I'm well aware of the moves they made this offseason and the state of this roster. Going into last season, the Rays rotation was a three-headed monster with Snell-Morton-Glasnow, but only one remains on the team after Morton left for Atlanta and Snell was traded to San Diego. To fill out the rotation, the team signed Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, and welcomed back Chris Archer to the team. Pitching has long been a strong suit of the Rays, but the jury is still out on just how much this new group can make up for what was lost. The offense brings back a lot of the same guys and Tampa Bay always seems to find quality guys for the bullpen. The biggest question mark will be the rotation for the first time in many seasons. They'll need stellar performances if they hope to repeat as American League Champions.

Toronto- The Youth Movement is in Full Swing North of the Border

The Blue Jays, by virtue of the expanded playoffs, were able to crack the postseason, led by a group of youngsters like Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., that put the offense on their backs, while veteran Hyun-jin Ryu led the pitching staff. This offseason they got even better, signing George Springer, Marcus Semien, Kirby Yates, and trading for Steven Matz to add a stronger veteran presence. This team is one of those to watch after all the additions they've made and is going to seriously challenge the Rays and Yankees for the division title and should lock up a playoff spot as long as they can keep everyone healthy.

Chicago (AL)- Tony Takes Over a Young, Upcoming Team

When the White Sox relieved Rick Renteria of his duties following their loss to Oakland in the Wild Card Round, I was very confused. In a season where the White Sox made the postseason for the first time since 2008, they improved their winning percentage by almost 140 points from 2019, and Renteria finished 2nd in Manager of the Year voting, they didn't bring him back and instead hired Tony La Russa? No disrespect to Tony La Russa, but in what world is that justifiable. They finished a game back of Minnesota and played a really good Oakland team in the playoffs. Not to mention Jose Abreu was named AL MVP after his monster year. He appeared to do everything right except beat Oakland, which gave management an excuse to give him the boot for a shinier toy, which is oddly similar to what happened when he was fired from the Cubs to make way for Joe Madden. Regardless, this team is good and only got better in the offseason by trading for Lance Lynn and signing Liam Hendricks to close things down in the ninth inning. If their pitching comes out hot, this is going to be the team to beat in the AL Central.

Cleveland- Was Trading Lindor and Carrasco the Right Decision?

The Francisco Lindor trade may have been the biggest trade of the offseason and to add Carlos Carrasco to that after also trading Mike Clevinger at the trade deadline last season only hurts the cause. Lindor's number didn't stand out last season when compared to someone like Jose Ramirez, who finished second in MVP voting to Jose Abreu. Couple that with not knowing whether he'd re-sign with only one year left on his deal and it was a perfect recipe to trade him. Carrasco's numbers last year were good. Not Shane Bieber-good, but sub 3.00 with 82 strikeouts good. But, the rest of the rotation also pitched well, so they may be confident enough in their rotation moving forward that losing Carrasco might not be a huge deal. Overall, it feels like a win for both teams, just in completely different ways. The Mets get better now and can try to push the table, while Cleveland doesn't have to worry about re-signing them and can call on other guys to step up, especially in as wide-open a division as this.

Detroit- A New Era with AJ Hinch at the Helm

The Tigers have been in a freefall for the last several seasons. After an abysmal 2019 where they had the worst record in the league, the Tigers slightly improved, capturing the third-worst record in the league and once again finishing in last in the AL Central. Miguel Cabrera is in what feels like his 100th season in the league and is likely to be on his last leg. He's closing in on 500 home runs for his career and will look to break it with a full season ahead. The team brought in quite a few free agents this winter, led by Nomar Maraza and Julio Teheran. But the biggest name might be their new manager AJ Hinch, fresh off serving his one-year suspension for the Astros scandal. The Tigers have a strong prospect pool, especially when it comes to pitching, with Casey Mize and Tarik Scubal, both of whom pitched in the majors last year, but their numbers weren't good. I attribute their lack of success to still not being quite ready yet, but this season they could make the jump full time. If this is it for Miggy, even though he still has some term left on his contract, then it's a shame he's going out with a team like this, but he's been loyal to the team for 13 seasons now, so he has seen it all.

Kansas City- One of the Most Aggressive Teams in the Offseason

If you predicted the Royals were going to be an aggressive team this offseason, you're a liar and I don't believe you. After finished 4th in the AL Central, a full nine games behind Chicago and Cleveland, the Royals did some work this offseason. They see how good the top of the division is and they knew they needed to do something to keep up. They did so by acquired Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox and signing free agents like Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, Wade Davis, and Michael A. Taylor. They didn't bring back Alex Gordon, at least not as of yet, which ends a 14-year story for him with the team. But they kept most of the team from last season intact, meaning they have faith in guys like Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield going forward. This team is going to have a hard time competing with the big dogs, but don't be surprised if they play spoiler this season for some of the better teams.

Minnesota- Did the Twins Do Enough to Fight Off Challenges From Chicago & Cleveland?

The Twins weren't loud about some of the acquisitions they made this offseason, but there are some quality names being brought to the group in Minnesota. Andrelton Simmons, arguably the best defensive player in the league, is taking over at shortstop. J.A. Happ is being added to an already strong rotation, led by Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios. Alex Colome and Hansel Robles are the newest toys for the bullpen. Not to mention the power the lineup already possesses with Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, and Byron Buxton. Alex Kirilloff, the Twins' top prospect, is likely to crack the Opening Day roster and Luis Arraez was smoking the ball in his limited action in 2020. This is a strong team all-around. I think Chicago is likely to be their biggest challenge, but Rocco Baldelli always seems to have this team ready and challenging come October.  

Houston- A Star Needs to Step Up After Springer Leaves and Verlander Get TJ Surgery

The baseball world united last season at the expense of the Houston Astros after reports surfaced they cheated en route to a World Series win in 2018. During the regular season, it worked, with the Astros finished below .500. But they managed to swipe the last Wild Card spot and came extremely close to facing the Dodgers in the World Series after digging out of a 3-0 hole against Tampa Bay. Despite the comeback, they fell short in Game 7 and lost George Springer in free agency in the offseason. Let's not kid ourselves here, the Astros have a stacked lineup, led by the likes of Correa, Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, and Brantley. Where they will suffer is in their pitching with Justin Verlander out for the season. Their staff wasn't horrible, but Verlander is a big piece of the puzzle. Veterans like Grienke and McCullers are going to need to have big seasons and Jose Uriquidy needs to pick up where he left off in the regular season if the Astros want to be seen as major contenders with the Yankees and others in the AL.

Los Angeles (AL)- The Best Player in the World Needs to Make it to the Postseason

There is no doubt in my mind that the best player in the world plays for the Los Angeles Angels. Mike Trout is an absolute beast every time he steps on a baseball diamond. He's won three MVP Awards, has been an all-star every season, flies all over the outfield, and possesses every major tool needed to be a successful player. What he doesn't have is much success in the postseason. Since his first full season in 2012, the Angels have made the playoffs once and they were swept in the ALDS. Knowing Trout was the future, they signed Albert Pujols in 2012, traded for Justin Upton in 2017, signed Shohei Ohtani in 2018, and signed Anthony Rendon in 2020, yet they haven't found any postseason success. This offseason they acquired Dexter Fowler, Jose Iglesias, Raisel Iglesias, and Alex Cobb via trade, and signed Jose Quintana and Kurt Suzuki through free agency all to try and get the team to the postseason. Every year, I overestimate how good the Angels are going to be because of who their superstar is. It's time for the Angels to finally deliver and get Trout to the playoffs again. 

Oakland- The Impact Losing Marcus Semien Has on the Offense

As we've seen a million times, the problem with small market teams is holding on to the players who develop into superstars through the minor leagues and into their first few seasons in the majors. Once they become stars, their value increases as does the price for their services. That day is soon coming for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, two of the biggest bats in the AL West, but it came this offseason for Marcus Semien. Though he didn't start his career in Oakland, he wasn't more than a role player until he started mashing the ball in Oakland, turning out a massive 2019 that saw him finish 3rd in MVP voting in the AL. He didn't have a great 2020, but he was still a valued part of the lineup. He took his talents to Toronto for $18 million, leaving a decent hole to fill at shortstop. The A's filled that hole by trading for Elvis Andrus in exchange for Khris Davis. Andrus is a great player, but there is no doubt this team will miss Semien. Despite being a small market team, they too often find themselves in the playoffs yearly, so there is all the chance in the world they find themselves in the middle of it in October.

Seattle- Welcome Home, Big Maple

The Mariners fought into the last weekend of the season in 2020, almost cracking a playoff spot despite finishing below .500. Following up on his decent sample size in 2019, Kyle Lewis became the everyday center fielder for the team and led the offense en route to winning Rookie of the Year in 2020. Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield led the rotation with sub-3.60 ERAs and going a combined 11-5 in 21 starts. They are expected to get Mitch Haniger back at some point this season to help add a strong veteran presence, along with Kyle Seager, to a young team. They brought back James Paxton as well to add depth to the rotation. Their bullpen will likely be a weak point for the team, which could put some added pressure on the arms that eat up all the innings. The AL West is always a tough division to predict, so don't be surprised if we see more from Seattle this season.

Texas- After Trading Lynn, Andrus, and Losing Kluber, Gallo Needs More Help

2020 is not a year the Texas Rangers are going to look back at fondly. They were abysmal and that might be putting it nicely. Seeing this, the Rangers had an all-out fire sale and got rid of almost everyone that produced anything last season, including but not limited to, Lance Lynn and Elvis Andrus to name two. This leaves Joey Gallo as the only player with a decent amount of star potential on the team and even he didn't play well in 2020. His average was below .200, he only hit ten home runs, and he struck out 79 times. Gallo seems to be an all-or-nothing hitter in that he either homers or strikes out, but he is still the biggest part of this offense. If there were ever a silver lining, it's that the Rangers have the second pick in this year's draft, meaning they'll have their pick of anyone not named Kumar Rocker. Texas is due for a long rebuild.

Atlanta- Are the Braves the Biggest Threat to the Dodgers Pennant Hopes?

It was 3-2 going into the bottom of the 6th inning of Game 7 of the NLCS. They were 12 outs away from advancing to the World Series. Go back before then and it was a 3-1 series lead for the Braves going into Game 5. Despite this, the Braves lost in seven games to the eventual champions in the NLCS and were forced to go back to the drawing board. They brought back Marcell Ozuna, but spent most of their focus on their rotation, signing Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly while waiting for Mike Soroka to recover from Achilles surgery. The Braves' offense is a scary one to face, led by Acuna, Freeman, Ozuna, and Albies. For my money, they are the only team, outside of San Diego, that I could see giving the Dodgers a run for their money. The biggest difference is in their rotation. I'd take the Dodgers and the Padres over Atlanta, but with the other two destined to beat each other up all season, we could see a rematch in the NLCS. 

Miami- Trying to Prove Last Season Wasn't a Fluke

The Marlins were one of the teams I was completely wrong about at the start of the 2020 season. I predicted them in the cellar of the toughest division in the NL. Naturally, they finished 2nd in the division and earned an automatic spot in the playoffs with the expanded field in the 2020 postseason. The Marlins pitching was a surprise when you break down the individual numbers, with Pablo Lopez leading the rotation and Brandon Kintzler closing things down. They lost Kintzler and used most of their money this offseason on building their bullpen. Their offense is going to run through Brian Anderson and the rest of the lineup is going to need to step up in a major way if Miami wants to return to the playoffs. I don't think they've done enough this offseason to prove last season wasn't a one-off. Add this to just how much star power some teams have and how much they've improved and Miami might be back in the cellar in 2021. 

New York (NL)- Welcome to the Beginning of the New-Look Mets

The Mets weren't playing around this offseason and made one of the biggest trades, bringing in Francisco Lindor from Cleveland to take over at SS. In that trade, they also brought in Carlos Carrasco and, in a separate deal, acquired Joey Luchessi from San Diego to add depth with the potential of Noah Syndergaard being out for some or possibly all of the season. Much of what's happened has been overshadowed by some of the front office issues but the product on the field is likely to be even better. Adding Lindor to a lineup with Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeill gives them one of the better groups in the NL East. If Jacob DeGrom can continue to be a Cy Young contender and Marcus Stroman can return to being an ace, this Mets team could be in the argument for Most Improved. 

Philadelphia- Time for Harper to Step Up and Lead the Phillies to the Postseason

It was a disappointing campaign in 2020 for the Phillies and I'd have to believe patience is wearing thin amongst the fan base. They missed the postseason to extend their postseason drought to nine seasons despite having one of the best players in the league. Their rotation, led by Wheeler and Nola, was solid, but they lost Jake Arrieta to Chicago and will need the guys there and the addition of Matt Moore to step up and help an offense loaded with playmakers. Bryce Harper has to step up and put this team on his back and return to his MVP form in 2021. They have the pieces to be a strong team, but they'll need to outperform teams like Atlanta and New York in order to see baseball in October. 

Washington- Nats Due for Bounce Back After Several Key Additions

There was some serious hangover in 2020 after winning the World Series in 2019. They fell to fourth in the NL East and missed the postseason despite the talent they possess. Max Scherzer didn't pitch like his usual self and the rest of the rotation under-performed. Their offense was spearheaded by one of the best players in the league, Juan Soto, and a SS who continues to impress, Trea Turner. They were aggressive this summer, signing Jon Lester, Brad Hand, and Kyle Schwarber, and trading for Josh Bell after losing some integral pieces to their team. The NL East is getting better, which seems to be a major reason as to why they did as much as they. I'm not completely sold on them making it to the postseason, but if Scherzer can get going and back to the way he has been in the past few years, they'll be making it hard on the rest of the division.

Chicago (NL)- How Big Was Trading Yu Darvish for the Rotation?

The Cubs are a constant rumor mill, especially when it comes to former MVP Kris Bryant. This winter, however, they did pull the trigger and trade Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies and a decent prospect haul. Darvish was without a doubt the best pitcher on the staff last season, finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting with a 2.01 ERA. Without him, Kyle Hendricks will take over that role. They did sign Jake Arrieta back to the team and acquired Davies as I mentioned, but there's no doubt Darvish is going to be a huge loss for the organization. To compound with that, the offense didn't produce the same way a lineup with Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez would. Jason Heyward was the big standout amongst the bats last season and that hope is that this production will continue into a full season in 2021. Given how weak the rest of the division is, outside of St. Louis, I could see this team winning the division or at the very least competing for a Wild Card spot, but that's only if the rotation can keep this team going.

Cincinnati- Is it Back to Square One for the Reds After Losing Bauer?

The Reds ended their postseason drought last season behind a stellar season from Cy Young Winner Trevor Bauer and though they lost to Atlanta, there was a lot to like about the season. The problem is that came to a screeching halt once Bauer left for Los Angeles. But this doesn't mean the Reds should be down on their chances this season. While Bauer led the way, Luis Castillo was great and Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle were solid too. Amir Garrett is one of the premier relievers in the league and could slot into the closer role if it isn't given to free-agent acquisition Sean Doolittle. Their offense didn't put up amazing numbers when you look at batting averages, but several guys were getting on-base at well over .330. This is a sneaky good team that can drive the ball over the fence with some of the better teams. If some of their bats can bounce back this season, this could be a playoff team. 

Milwaukee- When Will They Pull the Trigger on a Josh Hader Trade?

Much like Kris Bryant in Chicago, it feels like Josh Hader has been on the trade block for years now and Milwaukee isn't willing to pull the trigger unless the return is massive. I respect that Hader is one of the best closers in all of baseball, but I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up some high-end prospects for a closer. Regardless, to answer the question, it's hard to say for sure. On paper, this team has some good pieces. Christian Yelich is a top-five player in the league. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were strong starters and the bullpen features Hader and 2020 Rookie of the Year Devin Williams. This team has some talent they just ran into a loaded Dodgers team in the Wild Card Round. If they start slow out the gate, Hader's name is going to be the first one brought up. Whether he'll be on the move or not isn't for sure.

Pittsburgh- With the First Pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates Select...

While I'm not trying to look into the future and predict whether they'll have the first pick when the 2022 draft rolls around just yet, this team on paper is brutal, and not in a good way. Their best player last season was a 23 y/o rookie who played in less than half their games after being called up mid-season and finished 6th in Rookie of the Year voting. Steven Brault is going to be looked at as the top pitcher on the staff after being the only start with decent numbers despite a 1-3 record. Since they were the only team that didn't win 20 games in 2020, the Pirates are on the clock for the top pick in the draft, and there no doubt in my mind who they should take. Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker is an absolute monster and if he isn't the first pick, the front office should all be fired. He'll be a major pick for the organization and could crack the majors in no time.

St. Louis- Nolan Arenado, the Missing Piece?

I'll talk about him a lot more when talking about the Rockies post-Arenado, but I love this trade for St. Louis. With Matt Carpenter getting up there in age, bringing in Arenado to play 3rd base is smart given how good his glove is and how he mashes the ball at the plate. A lineup with Arenado, Goldschmidt, DeJong, and crew could give pitchers in the NL fits. The rotation is also strong. Jack Flaherty will look to bounce back from an underwhelming 2020, Miles Mikolas is coming off surgery that kept him out for 2020, Kwang-Hyun Kim pitched great in his rookie campaign, and Adam Wainwright always seems to a reliable option every fifth day. The one thing they're missing is a giant shutdown closer, but someone is destined to rise up and take over for the Cardinals' bullpen. The NL Central is likely to be one of the most tightly contested divisions amongst its top four teams, so the Arenado acquisition could propel St. Louis into first place.

Arizona- Can Madison Bumgarner Return to Form?

When Arizona signed Madison Bumgarner after he'd been a major part of a few World Series wins in San Francisco, the hope was he'd be exactly what Arizona needed to return to relevancy. Enter the weird 2020 season and Bumgarner was a mess. He pitched to a near 6.50 ERA and only won one start. He hasn't looked like the major investment Arizona was hoping he'd be. Zac Gallen took control of the ace role though and pitched to a sub 3.00 ERA in 12 starts. Ketel Marte and Kole Calhoun are going to be called on the handle a bulk of the workload on offense. They didn't do much this offseason since much of their money is locked into Bumgarner, but they did bring in Asdrubal Cabrera and Joakim Soria. It was a quiet winter for the Diamondbacks, who'll need a lot of luck in order to keep pace in the division. They might want to get used to picking at the top of the draft.

Colorado- Life After Arenado in One of the Most Competitive Divisions in Baseball

For eight seasons, Nolan Arenado was the franchise in Colorado. He won a Gold Glove every season, he was mashing home runs, and was a production machine for the Rockies. Despite the individual success, the Rockies only won one postseason game and never made it past the NLDS. With the team in a never-ending rebuild, the Rockies traded Arenado to St. Louis. This leaves the offense on the shoulders of Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story, the last of the few remaining rays of hope for Colorado. The pitching staff was mostly subpar, with German Marquez and Antonio Senzatella being the only real standouts in 2020. This is a tough division and has been for the last several years. With their best player now on a different team, it's only a matter of time before Story and crew are on their way out. 

Los Angeles (NL)- Time to Defend the Title

After several years and many failed attempts, the Dodgers were finally able to capture the World Series. How exactly did they celebrate? They signed the reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer and added him to a rotation with two other top-10 picks and another first-rounder. They are coming off a season where they had the league's best record and set the pace in runs per game and team ERA. Their offense is the best in the MLB. Their rotation might be the best in the MLB. They have one of the best prospect pools in the MLB. They are an absolute juggernaut of a team. It shouldn't come as a surprise that they are the early favorites to repeat as champions. 

San Diego- Offseason Winners Looking to Keep Up with LA

I dare say it, but the San Diego Padres were the winners of the offseason after acquiring Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, signing Mark Melancon, Keone Kela, and KBO free agent Ha-Seong Kim, and giving Fernando Tatis, Jr. a massive contract extension. They went all out to tried to do their part to keep up with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are still the best team in the MLB, but San Diego is hoping everything they did will keep them in the running in the NL West and, at the very least, get them back into the playoffs to avenge their loss to the Dodgers. Their offense is still back by Tatis Jr, Machado, Myers, and Hosmer and they've gone out and created a strong rotation, headlined by their major acquisitions via trade. This team will no doubt be good, but just how good will come to light once the season begins.

San Francisco- Is This Buster Posey's Last Hoorah with the Giants?

It's hard to think of a player that has meant so much to an organization more than Buster Posey has meant to the San Francisco Giants in the last decade. He was quite literally done it all for the team. He's a 6x All-Star, 4x Silver Slugger winner at catcher, won a Gold Glove in 2016, won the 2010 Rookie of the Year, and won the MVP Award in 2012 after missing most of 2011 after a horrible collision at the plate all on top of being a 3x World Series Champion. He has played the most physically demanding position on the diamond, but now he enters a crucial year. He is entering the last guaranteed year on his contract with the team holding an option for 2022 that could pay him $22 million if picked up. But with Joey Bart taking over the spot after Posey opted out in 2020 due to the pandemic, he might be seen as the future behind the plate. While this could mean Posey sees more action at first base this season, that $22 million is a big number. The Giants will have to weigh their options as to where Posey fits into their plan moving forward.

21 Predictions for 2021

1. The Dodgers will finish with the league's best regular-season record for the 3rd season in a row

Last year, the Dodgers finished three games better than the Rays at 43-17. This season I see them continuing their dominance over the league by finishing at 102-60. They were the best team last season and they appeared to get even better in the offseason by adding Trevor Bauer. Throw in one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball and this team is built to win and do so in bunches. I don't think anyone will be able to touch them this season.

2. The Yankees will have the second-best record and best in the American League

I said the same thing last year about this Yankees team, but then they finished second in the AL East thanks in large part to injuries. This season, perhaps foolishly, I'm picking them to do it for real this time. I, unlike the case with the Dodgers, think they'll face a little more competition for this from both within their division and across the Central and West as well. This will be closer than the NL, but I have the Yankees winning 98 games this season.

3. The Atlanta Braves will hit the most home runs as a team

The Braves can straight-up mash the baseball. Their lineup is among the most exciting in all of baseball. They finished 2nd in the shortened season last year and were one of only two teams to hit more than 100, the other of course being the Dodgers with 118 to the Braves 103. With a full season, this gives more opportunities to hit home runs. The Yankees and Dodgers are going to give them a run for their money, and the Twins are always in the conversation, but the Braves will mask their way to the team title in long balls.

4. The San Diego Padres pitching staff will record the most strikeouts

This is going to be a scary rotation to face no matter who they throw out there. They have a trio of Snell, Darvish, and Lamet that are going to light batters up. There are a lot of expectations surrounding this team and I think they'll deliver in almost every aspect of the game. These three are going to lead the way and leave a lot of batters looking silly at the plate.

5. There will be 4 no-hitters during the regular season and one will be a perfect game

Predicting no-hitters is extremely tough, but I'm going to try anyway. There were two in the 60-game season in 2020, each by a Chicago pitcher and occurring 19 days apart from one another. There were three in each of the two seasons before then, so four sounds like a decent number. There haven't been that many in a season since there were 7 in 2015. But, to be even more specific, I think one will be a perfect game, a feat that hasn't happened since Felix Hernandez threw one against my Rays in 2012. 

6. The NL East will be the most competitive division and the closest top to bottom

It might be lame to predict the closest division from last year between first and last will do it again this season, but the NL East has five pretty good teams. Atlanta and Washington were separated by only nine games when the season ended in 2020. Granted there were only 60 games, but I wouldn't be too surprised if first and last in the division are that close again this season. The AL East and AL West are two other divisions I could see in the running for this as well, but I'm sticking with the NL East.

7. Three divisions will have different winners than last year

I've made it pretty clear what my stance on the AL East is going to be since I'm picking New York to win it, but I think two more divisions could see the same thing though I think it's possible for it to happen in all but the NL West. Without giving too much away, the three divisions I could see it is most likely in are the AL East, AL West, and NL Central, with the AL Central being a close fourth. 

8. No pitcher will win 20 games this season and no one will strike out 300 batters

I made a similar prediction with the shortened season saying no pitcher would win 8 games, which I was wrong about. Now that we're back on a full 162-game schedule, 20 wins is always the standard for pitchers. Only two pitchers reached 20 wins in 2019 and ironically enough, the same two were the only ones to strikeout 300 batters (21 wins and 300 Ks for Justin Verlander and 20 wins and 326 Ks for Gerrit Cole). This year, no one will eclipse either of those numbers. There are dozens upon dozens of great pitchers in the league, but there is no much parity throughout the league that someone will come close, but no cigar.

9. Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr will lead their leagues in home runs

Betting against Mike Trout is a terrible decision and I wouldn't recommend it if you're a baseball fan. Last season was just the second time in Trout's career that he finished outside of the top two in MVP voting, finishing fifth. But 2020 is going to be a full season and he's coming off a career-high in home runs in 2019 with 45. Ronald Acuna Jr is one of the brightest stars in the league and can mash the ball. He hit 41 in a full season in 2019 and added 14 last season in 60 games. He's going to take off this season. I'm predicting 52 for Trout and 47 for Acuna Jr. 

10. Three players will go 30/30 this season

Speaking of Trout and Acuna Jr, they're both members of the 30/30 club. Trout joined in 2012 going 30/49 and Acuna Jr did it in 2019 with 41/37. Trout hasn't been running a lot lately so I don't think he'll be one of them, but I'm expecting Acuna Jr to be one of the three. The other two players are going to be Mookie Betts for a second time (2018- 32/30) and Trevor Story for the first time. Story is an out-of-left-field choice, but he finished third in stolen bases in 2020 and had 11 home runs. I think he'll break out even more with Arenado gone. 

11. Four managers will be let go mid-season

This is super ambitious, but I don't think teams are going to be sitting back and waiting to see how things go after a shortened season. Pittsburgh's Derek Shelton and Texas' Chris Woodward are the two most likely to be on the chopping block after poor performances in 2020. Baltimore's Chris Hyde is another easy candidate. Seattle's Scott Servais and Colorado's Bud Black are also on the hot seat. A lot of this is obviously contingent on how these teams play and they might even wait for the end of the season, but I'm hoping for some fireworks around the league.

12. The Mets will be the most improved team, while the Marlins will have the biggest drop

With 2020 only having 60 games, it's easy to ask what would've happened if they'd played a full season. Would things have ended the exact same way? I think we'd see a lot of changes that would completely reshape the postseason matchups. I don't think the Marlins would've made it in a full season, which is why I'm expecting them to be brought down to reality. They won't finish above .500 like last year. The Mets made one of the biggest trade acquisitions in the league this winter. They finished outside of a playoff spot and while I won't commit to them actually making the playoffs, I do think they'll be much better than they were in 2020.

13. Eight players will hit 40 or more home runs

Ten players reached this mark in 2019, with only Pete Alonso hitting over 50. With the league looking to cut down on home runs, I expect to still see home runs, but not in the normal amount. It'll still be a lot of the usual suspects, but things can change. On top of all that, I think Mike Trout is going to be the only player to hit 50 home runs. They'll probably be a few players who hit 38 or 39, but I'm sticking to my guns and say only eight players will reach it. 

14. The Boston Red Sox will finish below .500 this season

Fangraphs has Boston finishing with a higher chance of making the playoffs than the Rays. Frankly, I don't think I'd give them more of a chance than Tampa Bay, especially since people always underestimate the Rays and they outperform everyone's expectations. Boston is a decent team, but I don't think they'll be on the same page as New York, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. I think they'll finish fourth in the division and be below .500 yet again in 2021. 

15. The Los Angeles Angels will miss the playoffs...again 

I've spent time talking about getting Mike Trout to the playoffs, but I think the Angels are just destined to fall short. Until the Angels can prove that they're capable of doing so, I won't pick them to be a playoff team anymore. It's a lot of talk for someone with zero standing in any baseball circle, but I'm ready to see Trout get his chance at a World Series, but this isn't the season for it. They're still one or two key pieces away from being serious contenders in the AL West.

16. No team will have a .667 or better win percentage

Finishing with .667 means you win 108 games in a 162-game season. Last year, the Dodgers and the Rays both finished .667 or better, but that was in 60 games. I think it's much harder to accomplish this in 162 games, so I don't think anyone will be able to accomplish it this season.

17. The Pirates will repeat as the league's worst team

I feel bad for being tough on Pittsburgh, but their team just doesn't look good on paper. Now that could change when the season starts, but that is highly unlikely. They finished with fewer than 20 wins last year and they only won 69 games in 2019. They're on a freefall and that's going to carry into 2021 as well. When it's time for the 2022 Draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be picking first yet again. It'll be the first time a team picks first in consecutive years since the Astros in 2012, 2013, and 2014. It'll also be the fourth time this century (Tampa Bay in 2007 and 2008, Washington in 2009 and 2010, and Houston). 

18. Josh Hader will be traded by the trade deadline this season

The rumor mill is eventually going to be right and Josh Hader is going to be on the move. Odds are he'll go to a team like the Yankees or the Dodgers since they can likely afford him, but it won't be for the prospect haul the Brewers expect. Regardless, it's going to happen, and just remember you read it here first when it happens.

19. The third-ever postseason no-hitter will be thrown in this postseason

I wanted to have fun with this one so what's better than something that has only happened twice in the history of MLB. I'm not sure who it'll be, but I want to see it happen this season. Only Don Larsen and Roy Halladay have ever accomplished the feat, so to see that list expand by one more name would be awesome. 

20. Only one team that did not make the playoffs in 2020 will make it in 2021

Last season expanded the playoffs to 16 teams. We'll be back to only ten in 2021, which means a lot of the teams that made it in 2020 won't make it in 2021. But there's going to be one exception to that rule that makes it over one of the teams that did. That being said, this means the playoff field will be pretty similar to the field in 2020. Tampa Bay is an easy choice to miss since I'm not completely sold on the rotation yet. Miami is the most obvious choice to miss, with the Mets likely being their replacement. 

21. Both Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols will retire at the end of the season

Albert Pujols has already said that he'll wait until the end of the season to evaluate whether he'll hang up the cleats or not but between the two, I think he's the most likely to do it. What might keep Miggy from retiring would be the number of years left on his contract. He still has two years left with an additional two years with vesting options. But both have been around for a considerable amount of time and they might be ready to call it a career. Regardless of when they retire, they're both no-doubt Hall of Famers and it'll be well-deserved for just how great they have been for the game of baseball for the better part of two decades.

Standings Predictions

AL East

New York- 98-64*

Tampa Bay- 88-74*

Toronto- 86-76*

Boston- 77-85

Baltimore- 63-99

AL Central

Minnesota- 91-71*

Chicago- 85-77

Cleveland- 82-80

Kansas City- 75-87

Detroit- 64-98

AL West

Houston 89-73*

Oakland- 83-79

Seattle- 80-82

Los Angeles- 76-86

Texas- 64-98

NL East

Atlanta- 96-66*

New York- 93-69*

Philadelphia- 86-76

Washington- 79-83

Miami- 75-87

NL Central

St. Louis- 93-69*

Chicago- 89-73

Cincinnati- 81-81

Milwaukee- 76-86

Pittsburgh- 51-111

NL West

Los Angeles- 102-60*

San Diego- 96-66*

San Francisco- 76-86

Arizona- 70-92

Colorado- 66-96

* denotes playoff team

Postseason Predictions

AL Wild Card Game- Tampa Bay def. Toronto 6-3

In Wild Card games, it is mostly about the pitching matchup. This is a rematch of last year's Best-of-Three Wild Card round to open the postseason that the Rays swept. I think the two offenses match up pretty similarly, despite the obvious star power the Blue Jays possess. The assumed pitching matchup would be Tyler Glasnow again Hyun-jin Ryu. I think the Rays, given their experience with deep postseason runs, will hold off the Blue Jays for another year. 

 

NL Wild Card Game- San Diego def. New York 9-5

This is the more intriguing Wild Card matchup to me since it's the two teams that improved the most in the offseason. I assumed we'd see either Blake Snell or Yu Darvish against Jacob DeGrom in this game. I think most of the damage from the Padres is going to come once DeGrom is pulled from the ball game. The Padres are probably the fourth or fifth-best team in the entire league, it's just a shame they're in the same division and would be matched up with the Dodgers in the NLDS.

ALDS 1- New York def. Tampa Bay 3-1

A rematch of last year's series between two division opponents that have solid rivalry brewing up given recent events. The Rays just barely escaped the Yankees in Game 5 when Mike Brosseau took Aroldis Chapman deep in the 8th inning to give them the lead and eventually the series. The two teams will meet often in the regular season, so it will give each team time to scout and figure the other out. Ultimately, I think money is going to win this round to even the series, meaning these two teams are destined to meet in 2022 to determine the real winner, but for now, the Yankees will have the edge.

ALDS 2- Minnesota def. Houston 3-2

Here's a fun fact about the Minnesota Twins. Since winning the World Series in 1991, the Twins have reached the postseason a total of nine times. Their record in those nine appearances is 6-30 in ten total series/wild card games. Last year, the Houston Astros swept the Twins in consecutive games in the Wild Car round to extend their losing streak, currently at 18 games. This season, Minnesota is going to get some revenge and not only win a game but win the series over Houston. I really like this Minnesota team and need the Astros to prove themselves in the regular season before I give them a bigger chance in the postseason.

NLDS 1- Los Angeles def. San Diego 3-2 

The one advantage I might give the Padres in this series is that they'd have played most recently. While that might work for Game 1, after that it's going to be pretty much all Dodgers. I expect this series to be a bloodbath, likely due to fireworks that I'm hoping to see during the regular season. The Dodgers are the defending champions, which means they know how to win in October. But, they also have plenty of experience with losing in October too, so don't expect this to be that much of a cakewalk for Los Angeles.

NLDS 2- Atlanta def. St. Louis 3-0

In a way, the Braves and Cardinals get lucky not having to face the Dodgers in the NLDS. Instead, they get to beat each other up in the other divisional series. I think the Braves are a really strong team and I see them dispatching the Cardinals in pretty quick order. It always feels like there is one "not so close" series, and I anticipate it being this one. The Braves have a lot of youth all around the diamond and on the pitching staff, which makes them a threat for many years to come.

ALCS- New York def. Minnesota 4-2

Here's another fun fact about the Minnesota Twins. In those nine postseason appearances mentioned earlier, the New York Yankees have knocked them out six times. Even worse, the Twins are 2-16 in those series, being swept each of the last four times. The Yankees are the ultimate final boss they can never get past. I think they'll win at least one, maybe two games in the series, but the Yankees are chasing a World Series of their own, much like the Dodgers before 2020, except the wait wouldn't have been as long. It has been 11 seasons since the Yankees won the World Series, last being done in 2009 against the reigning champions, the Philadelphia Phillies. 11 season is their longest-drought since the 17-year drought between their wins in 1978 and 1996. They haven't even made an appearance since their 2009 win. The caveat for the Yankees always seems to be "as long as they are healthy" and that surely applies here, because if they aren't, there's no way they're making it to the World Series in 2021. (ALCS MVP: NYY OF Aaron Judge)

NLCS- Atlanta def. Los Angeles 4-3

A rematch of last year's NLCS, history won't be able to forget the Braves blew a 3-1 series lead to the Dodgers in 2020. After Bryse Wilson outdueled Clayton Kershaw in Game 4, the Braves were on the cusp of adding to the Dodgers' wait. The crazy thing is they started Game 5 well too, leading 2-1 through five innings. Then the wheels fell off and the Dodgers scored six runs in the 6th and 7th combined to win Game 5. Then the bats went quiet in Game 6 and the Dodgers evened the series to force Game 7. The Braves, once again, took the lead early only for the bullpen to blow it and the rest is history. This series is going to re-affirm to everyone that winning the World Series puts a target on your back and that it is hard to repeat as champions. The "Hollywood" version of this series would be the Dodgers jumping out to a 3-1 series lead only to lose in Game 7, but I think this will be a see-saw battle. My reason for picking the Braves is that, as I said, repeating is hard to do, and the Braves were left licking their wounds. They are going to be the hungrier team and they're going to the World Series. (NLCS MVP: ATL 1B Freddie Freeman)

World Series- Atlanta def. New York 4-3

This looks like a matchup pulled straight out of the late '90s and early 2000s. Part of me thinks I'm thinking way too much of this Braves team, the other part of me thinks they're going to win the World Series. Coming into a potential World Series, the Braves are likely to be the most battle-tested team, but this could also mean they are more susceptible to being beaten up. The Yankees are a well-built team. They have a strong front-end to their rotation, a lineup that can hit home runs in bunches, and all the money in the world. But, this Braves team is good, at least on paper. I think being able to beat the Dodgers would give them a leg up since the Dodgers are the best team in baseball in everyone's minds. I also want to make it clear that if I'd have picked the Dodgers over the Braves, the Dodgers would win the World Series again, in my opinion. But this Braves team should have been in the World Series last season and I think they're even better this season than they were last season. This would obviously be a tight series, but I think it comes down to which lineup I think I can count on being more consistent, and, to me, that's the Braves. (World Series MVP: ATL OF Ronald Acuna Jr)

Awards Predictions

AL Manager of the Year- Charlie Montoyo (TOR) over Aaron Boone (NYY) and Dusty Baker (HOU)

If not for the year the Kevin Cash and the Rays had in 2020, Charlie Montoyo would have been my pick to win this award last season. If he can manage to guide the Blue Jays to the playoffs, I feel like this is his award to lose as long as a last-place team has an amazing turnaround and enters the playoffs in 2021. As much as we might dislike the Astros for what they did, there is no way you can dislike Dusty Baker and feel at least a little bad for him and the situation he had to come in and manage. I'm projecting Aaron Boone and the Yankees to have the best record in the AL, so he'll likely be in the mix as well.

NL Manager of the Year- Jayce Tingler (SD) over Brian Snitker (ATL) and Luis Rojas (NYM)

Tingler finished 2nd in voting last season to Don Mattingly after he led the Marlins to an improbable playoff appearance. This season he'll face some stiff competition, especially from the Dodgers and the NL East, but if his team can perform the way everyone expects them to, Tingler will be in a prime position to take home the hardware next winter. Brian Snitker and Luis Rojas represent the two best teams in the NL East and Rojas might actually win if he can lead the Mets to a division title. 

AL Rookie of the Year- Alex Kirilloff (MIN) over Jarred Kelenic (SEA) and Randy Arozarena (TB)

I feel like Randy Arozarena is the pre-season favorite after his record-breaking postseason and a strong second half of the regular season. As a Rays fan, I'd like to see him win the ROY, but I also want to be slightly more realistic. I think Alex Kirilloff is going to be a monster this season for the Twins. He debuted in the Wild Card Series against Houston and went 1-4 in his only game, so the sample size in the majors isn't big enough. This is going to be a way stronger field than we had last season, so I expect this race to be very competitive.

NL Rookie of the Year- Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) over Ian Anderson (ATL) and Joey Bart (SF)

The race for NL Rookie of the Year last season was so thin that two of these players received votes last year for the award that still have their rookie status through 2021. Ke'Bryan Hayes finished sixth in voting and Ian Anderson finished tied for seventh. Honestly, though, the only real reason Hayes finished lower than Alec Bohm and Jake Cronenworth is that he played fewer games. Hayes hit .373 with five home runs and 11 RBIs in 24 games. Ian Anderson wasn't that bad either, going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA. Joey Bart didn't get any ROY votes, but even he played 33 games for the Giants last season. Sixto Sanchez is another name to look out for with the Marlins, as he'll likely get a lot of starts too.

AL Cy Young Award- Shane Bieber (CLE) over Gerrit Cole (NYY) and Lucas Giolito (CWS)

Until someone who is pitching better than him, Shane Bieber is going to be my pick to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner. Gerrit Cole might be considered the best pitcher in the AL, but Shane Bieber was so electric in a shortened season that seeing him follow it up with a strong 2021 would not surprise me at all. Gerrit Cole is going to give him a run for the award though after finishing fourth in voting last season. Lucas Giolito is a wild card for me, but he's going into the season as Chicago's ace, so he'll be eating up a lot of innings for a good team.

NL Cy Young Award- Walker Buehler (LAD) over Jacob DeGrom (NYM) and Blake Snell (SD)

It is time for Walker Buehler to officially take over as the ace of the Dodgers' pitching staff. This is the season to do it. He only registered one decision in 2020 in eight starts, albeit a win, and a respectable 3.44 ERA, but it's safe to say that 2020 was all but normal. He rebounded a decent amount in the postseason, especially in the NLCS when he only gave up one run in two starts against the Braves. DeGrom was unable to defend his Cy Young Award in 2020 but did finish 3rd in voting, so he'll likely be in the discussion yet again this season. Blake Snell didn't want to leave Tampa Bay but on this team, I'm sure he's going to perform well and be in the discussion to win his second career Cy Young Award. 

AL Most Valuable Player- Mike Trout (LAA) over Alex Bregman (HOU) and Rafael Devers (BOS)

Not voting for Mike Trout would be like not voting for LeBron James or Connor McDavid, it's just not smart. But after having a "down" season in 2020, he is the type of person to bounce back with a vengeance and it only stands out more when you're playing on a sub-par team. Given my projections for Trout this season, he is likely to stand out above the rest of the field. Alex Bregman is another name that feels like he is around the MVP race, at least in the preseason, and with this Astros team, he'll need to help make up for the departure of George Springer. Rafael Devers is another name that might not be in the mix for most people, but I think he might be one of the players that takes a massive step forward in 2021.

NL Most Valuable Player- Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) over Juan Soto (WAS) and Fernando Tatis Jr (SD)

The young guns are taking over in the league, but the NL seems to be overrun by them and the three names I have here are going to lead that charge. Tatis Jr and Soto both finished in the top five in MVP voting last season after having monster seasons. Acuna Jr also received MVP votes and finished in 12th and while he didn't have a great postseason showing, we've seen what Acuna Jr can do in a full season and that gives me my confidence in picking him as the NL MVP in 2021. Soto hit .351 last season and Tatis Jr received a massive contract extension in the offseason. This trio is going to dominate in the league for many years to come and it might have already started.