Nashville Series Review and Tampa Bay Series Preview

It took many overtime games, but the Carolina Hurricanes were finally able to finish off the Nashville Predators on Thursday night on the road with a 4-3 OT win on Sebastian Aho's deflection goal just 66 seconds in. It was the culmination of an extremely hard-hitting and back-and-forth series. Nashville came into the series as the four-seed in the Central Division. After starting the season 13-17-1, the Predators went 18-6-1 over their last 25 games to clinch a playoff spot. They had also clinched their playoff spot by beating the Hurricanes in the final two games of the regular season. The season series had been decisively in Carolina's favor, despite losing those two games to close the regular season, earning 12 of a possible 16 points compared to Nashville's five and outscoring them 24-17 in eight meetings. Many "experts" picked the Canes to win the series in four or five games, though some did expect it to go longer. My general feeling was that none of these people had watched much Central Division hockey this season because I felt Nashville had a great shot and they proved to be quite a handful.

Carolina-Nashville in Retrospect

For the first time since the Stanley Cup Final in 2006, the Hurricanes had earned the opportunity to host a series opener and it was made all the better when it was announced 12,000 fans would be in attendance. A running theme in this series, as we'd come to find out, was that Nashville was more than likely going to score first. They struck first in the opener when Filip Forsberg tucked it past Alex Nedeljkovic, making his first NHL playoff start, to give Nashville a 1-0 lead in the first period. Teuvo Teravainen wouldn't let that stand for long, as he scored less than a minute and a half later by deflecting a Brett Pesce shot with one hand. Jordan Staal would give the Canes a 2-1 lead in the second during a 4-on-4, beating Juuse Saros from a tough angle over the shoulder on an absolutely perfect shot over Saros' shoulder. Erik Haula, who played the beginning of last season with the Canes before being dealt at the deadline for Vincent Trocheck and quickly became public enemy #1 in Raleigh, would tie things up over four minutes later. The teams remained tied going into the third period and from that point on the Canes would dominate the game. Nino Niederreiter buried a pass from Martin Necas to give the team the lead 2:26 into the period and Jordan Staal would put home his second of the game to push the lead to two goals. Andrei Svechnikov would add an empty-netter to give the Canes a decisive 5-2 win, a 1-0 series lead, and Alex Nedeljkovic his first playoff win. The Canes would ride this strong third period into Game 2 and stifle the Predators' offense. The big storyline going into the game was the absence of Jaccob Slavin with an injury. The Canes set the tone with a power play goal early in the first period from Sebastian Aho on a beautiful feed from Svechnikov. The story of this game became the penalty kills of each team. Excluding two offsetting incidences that took place in the second period, the Canes were called for seven penalties compared to Nashville's three. The Canes scored on the power play in the first, as I mentioned, but the penalty kill killed every penalty as well. Sebastian Aho would add an empty netter with under a minute to go, his second goal of the game, and Warren Foegele would get a fluky bounce off Ryan Ellis' skate and into the net to make it 3-0. The score would hold at that and Alex Nedeljkovic earned his first postseason shutout, stopping all 32 shots to give the team a 2-0 lead in the series heading to Nashville.

With all the momentum on their side having been in front of the home crowd in Raleigh, the series shifted to Nashville for the next two games. Nashville's crowd was about the same size as Carolina's, a little bit larger actually, and the energy could be felt through the television. Slavin was still out of the lineup and Maxime Lajoie would make his team debut in the game. After the path to the penalty box was worn out in Game 2, there weren't any calls in the first period of Game 3, and Nashville led 2-1 after the first. On cue, the Canes took the first two penalties of the period and killed them. Then Nashville took the next two and Vincent Trocheck scored to give the Canes a 3-2 on a beautiful shot that he placed perfectly between Saros' ear and the post after Staal tied it earlier in the period. Then things got a little dicey. Warren Foegele cleared the puck over the glass in the defensive zone, prompting the referees to get together. We at home have the benefit of replay of saw that the puck hit the boards before going out of play, but the refs assessed a delay of game penalty anyway, putting the Canes on the kill again. 30 seconds later Jordan Staal was called for a trip, that was really a slew foot, giving the Preds a 5-on-3. Mikael Granlund scored on the ensuing 5-on-3 to tie the game again. Ryan Johansen gave Nashville the lead again early in the third period. In another common theme of this series, the Canes would tie the game late in the third period courtesy of Brett Pesce. This goal was enough to force the first overtime of the series. Neither team scored in the first OT, but Jordan Staal had a great chance that was thwarted due to a slash that went uncalled. In the second OT, after killing off a penalty from Lajoie, Matt Duchene received an aerial flip from Roman Josi, beat Jake Bean, and put the puck in the back of the net while avoiding a poke check from Ned. The goal gave Nashville life and cut into the series lead 2-1. The story was again the Canes taking seven penalties while Nashville only took three. Game 4 didn't start any better when Luke Kunin scored 57 seconds into the first period. Trocheck tied the game late in the period to send the game to the intermission knotted at one. Ryan Johansen scored again early in the second, but Brock McGinn wired a shot past Saros to even the score again before the second intermission. McGinn scored 13 seconds into the third period, but the lead was short-lived when Nick Cousins scored on the power play three minutes later. Ned and Saros dueled back and forth and the game went to overtime again. Neither team scored in the first overtime, so another overtime was required and in that extra frame, Luke Kunin buried a shot past Ned to even the series and take both games in Nashville.

Having lost the lead and with Nashville feeling good about themselves, the series returned to Raleigh for Game 5 in what could be seen as a must-win game even though no one could be eliminated. This marked the return of Jaccob Slavin to the lineup, a much-needed boost given the results of the last two games. The sentiment didn't last long when Yakov Trenin broke the ice in the first on a weird play that deflected off Steven Lorentz before hitting Trenin's stick. The Canes drew a penalty shortly after the goal and Martin Necas took advantage, sending a shot over Saros' glove to tie the game before intermission. 53 seconds into the second period, Trenin scored his second goal on a 2-on-1 to help Nashville reclaim the lead. It would be the only goal of the period, putting Nashville 20 minutes from heading home with a chance to finish the series at home. Carolina dominated the third period but couldn't put anything past Saros. It wasn't until the middle stages of the third period that Martin Necas put the game on his stick and scored on a beautiful wrap-around, similar to another he had earlier in the season against Columbus, that ignited the crowd and tied the game. The teams traded chances at the end of the period, but nothing could be resolved in regulation, so the two teams went to overtime for the third straight game. The Canes only need one overtime, in fact, they only needed 2:03 before Jordan Staal batted a puck out of mid-air past Saros to give the Canes a 3-2 series lead. Game 6 was back in Nashville and things started off poorly for the Canes. Despite a goal from Brock McGinn 4:21 into the first period, the Canes were down 3-1 mid-way through the second period. The tides changed after Sebastian Aho directed home a pass from Dougie Hamilton with 6:26 left in the second period to cut the deficit to one goal before the start of the third period. The Canes again dominated the third period and scored after Nashville iced the puck. Off the draw, Jaccob Slavin skated from the point to the goal line with the puck and fed a wide-open Dougie Hamilton on the doorstep to tap it home and tie the game. No one scored at the end of the period and for the third time in NHL history, the Canes and Preds went to overtime for the fourth consecutive game. The Canes kept this one short and advanced when Aho deflected a shot from Slavin past Saros just 66 seconds into the session.

Carolina's Three Stars of the Series

Third Star- Alex Nedeljkovic- 4-0-2, .922 SV%, 2.22 GAA, 1 SHO

It was said many time during the post-game interviews that Ned isn't playing like a rookie and no one really sees him as one. It's important to state that even though you don't get points for losing in overtime, both losses were in extra time. They still count as losses, but Ned kept the team in every game they played, win or lose. His workload wasn't nearly as great as his counterpart, Juuse Saros, but some of his saves were simply spectacular. He recorded his first playoff win, first playoff shutout, and first playoff series win in a matter of six games. There is going to be more expected of him heading into the Tampa Bay series, so this is just the first chapter of what could be an amazing postseason run for him.

Second Star- Brett Pesce- 4 points (1-3-4), 29:30 ATOI  in 6 games (GTG in Game 3)

Playing without who most would consider your best defensive defenseman is never an easy thing to do, but in Slavin's absence in Game 2, 3, and 4, Pesce stepped up in a big way. He played over 39 minutes in Game 3 and over 40 minutes in Game 4, and was remarkable on the defensive end. What might be a tad bit underrated was his play on offense, especially early in the series. Pesce recorded two primary assists in Game 1, another primary assist in Game 2, and scored the game-tying goal in Game 3 to force overtime. Though Game 3 was still a loss, he picked the perfect time to score his first career playoff goal and at least give the team a chance to win in overtime. He was arguably the team's best defenseman in the series and deserves more recognition.

First Star- Sebastian Aho- 7 points (5-2-7) in 6 games (2 multi-goal games and GWG in Game 6)

Aho was easily the team's best forward in the regular season and his play has continued into the postseason. The team had multi-goal performances in five of the six games and Aho was responsible for two of those performances. He put the team on his back in Game 2 and almost single-handidly willed the team to a win with two goals. He followed that up with a three-point performance in Game 3 (1-2-3) and was also responsible for two-goals in the series-clinching game, including the OT winner. He led both teams in goals and points with five goals and seven points. Seeing how he'll perform against Tampa Bay is going to be exciting and he'll need to keep this up if they have a chance of winning.

Season Series with Tampa Bay

Carolina and Tampa Bay played each other eight times this season, as they did with every opponent in their division. This season series was about as close as it could possibly get. Each team went 4-3-1 and the Canes outscored the Lightning by just one goal, 18-17. Here's a brief overview of the eight matchups from the series.

1/28- After having to wait ten days between games due to a COVID outbreak on the team, Petr Mrazek and a very short-handed Hurricanes team outdueled Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Lightning 1-0 with Martin Necas providing the OT winner on a feed from Jordan Staal. Mrazek stopped all 32 shots en route to his second shutout in his first three starts of the season. 

2/20- In the first of four straight games against the Lightning, Alex Nedeljkovic notched his first career shutout, stopping all 24 shots in a 4-0 win for the Canes. Four different players scored, including Cedric Paquette against his former team, and Aho and Svechnikov both had multi-point games with a goal and an assist.

2/22- Tampa gets their first win of the season series in a 4-2 road win, backed by a strong performance from Vasilevskiy (34 saves on 36 shots) and two-point games from Hedman, Palat and Stamkos (goal, assist each). Jesper Fast scored both Canes goals, his first with the team after being signed during free agency. 

2/24- Ross Colton scores his first career NHL goal and Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped all 25 shots to shut out the Canes 3-0. This marked the first time in the season the Canes had been shut out, something that wouldn't happen again until the final game of the season against Nashville (5-0 L).

2/25- Brett Pesce opens the scoring in the first, but Curtis McElhinney goes perfect after that and the Lighning win the final game of the four game mini-series, 3-1. Five different Lighning players records points and McElhinney stopped 31 of 32 shots in the win. This would also mark the first three-game losing streak of the season.

3/27- Martin Necas records a four-points game (2-2-4), factoring on each of the Canes goals and scoring the game-winner in a 4-3 victory. The Canes put up 40 shots on Vasilevskiy and Necas scores the winner with 3:53 to go in the third period. Tampa held a 2-0 lead into the first intermission before putting up three goals in the second period (Paquette, Aho, Necas). 

4/19- The Canes erase a two-goal deficit to force overtime, but ultimately fall short when Yanni Gourde stuffs home a rebound opportunity in overtime. Brady Skjei tied the game 1:02 into the third period and Petr Mrazek stopped 33 of 36 shots in the overtime loss. Andrei Svechnikov provided the other Canes goal on the power play.

4/20- Behind a three-goal second period, the Canes win their final regular season game against Tamp Bay, 4-1. Ned beats Vasilevskiy for the second time this season, stopping 26 of 27 shots, and Nino Niederreiter has the only multi-point game of the night (goal, assist). This game will fondly be remembered as the one where Staal and Gourde battled out front before Staal delected the shot in. Win ensures the series is tied 4-3-1 for the season.

Second Round Preview

Tampa Bay is also coming off a six-game series win, beating the Florida Panthers in the 2 v. 3 matchup in the Central Division. The thing that is going to stand out for most people is that Tampa is coming in $17 million over the salary cap with both Steven Stamkos (38 games) and Nikita Kucherov (missed the entire regular season) playing and healthy. Kucherov played a major role in their first-round matchup, putting up 11 points (3-8-11) in six games, while Stamkos (3-5-8), Alex Killorn (4-4-8), and Victor Hedman (0-8-8) all tied with eight points. Vasilevskiy played all six games in net and posted a .929 SV% and 2.64 GAA. In the regular season series, Killorn (2-3-5) and Hedman (1-4-5) tied for the team lead in points in the head-to-head, while Martin Necas (3-5-8) led the Canes. With Ned as the starter for the series, he went 2-1-0 in three starts with a .962 SV% and a 1.02 GAA. Vasilevskiy went 3-3-1 in seven starts with a .933 SV% and 2.13 GAA. 

I strongly believe this is going to be a battle between the third and fourth-best teams in the league, behind only Colorado and Vegas, who are possibly going to play against each other in the second round as well.Vasilevskiy is the best goalie in the league and has to be the favorite for the Vezina trophy. It is also hard to ignore that Tampa Bay are the defending champions one year after being swept in the first round following a historic regular season. They've experienced all the highs and lows associated with the postseason. The two teams have never met in the postseason, so there isn't any history to go off. They're old Southeast Division rivals and won the cups in back-to-back seasons interrupted by the lockout season (Tampa Bay in 2004, Carolina in 2006). The Canes have experience against defending champions, beating Washington in seven games in 2019 after the Caps won the cup in 2018. These are very different circumstances, so there isn't much that can be drawn from that series. On paper, I think the Lightning are the better team, but I have faith that the Canes can get this done with home-ice on their side. Ultimately, my pick is for the Canes to win this series in seven games.